The Black Swan
By Dave
July 14th, 2008 | Leave a comment
The Black Swan is not a fairy tale. Far from it. The Black Swan explains how sudden, unexpected events are the most powerful agents of change in the world. Change happens usually in violent spasms that, at least briefly, touch off chaos before a new order is instilled. In addition to challenging what he calls Platonic assumptions (focusing on the easily discernible), Nassim Nicholas Taleb exercises a mischievous sense of humor. He quotes Yogi Berra often: “You can observe a lot just by watching.” (epilogism) “It’s tough to make predictions about the future.” “The future ain’t what it used to be.” He gleefully bashes everything French (his parents are French citizens and he is fluent in French, so maybe he’s entitled to). He skewers the high-on-the-hog riders: “We humans have the largest cortex, followed by bank executives, dolphins, our cousins the apes.”
Having dwelt in the worlds of both academia and business gives him a rare perspective. He notes that being called a practitioner is an insult in academia, and being called academic is an insult in business.
On theory: “A theory is like medicine (or government): often useless, sometimes necessary, always self-serving, and on occasion lethal. So it needs to be used with care, moderation, and close adult supervision.”
Take your time with this book. Don’t take it to the beach. Expect to have some assumptions challenged. And expect to discover some new concepts.
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February 2nd, 2009 at 10:19 pm
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